Updated: Aug 17, 2021
Update: Upon hearing about the Wentz and Nelson injuries, I no longer advise betting on the Indianapolis Colts at +110 to win the AFC South.
Bills win AFC East (-150)
Josh Allen. Tua Tagovailoa. Mac Jones. Zach Wilson. Buffalo has the top quarterback in the division...by a mile. That's the secret to winning divisions in this league: have the best quarterback. Bills take the AFC East.
Best Bet: Ravens/Browns finish in top 2 of AFC North (-150)
Baltimore and Cleveland have much better rosters than Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Steelers faded down the stretch last year, and I expect their woes to continue. The Bengals are still at least a year away from really contending for the division title. The Steelers and Bengals have two of the top 5 hardest schedules in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
Browns finish 1st, Ravens finish 2nd in AFC North (+240)
I think Baltimore and Cleveland are locked into the top two spots of the AFC North. I like Cleveland a little bit more than I like Baltimore. I think the division is a coin flip between these two squads.
Bengals finish 3rd in AFC North (+650)
The Pittsburgh offensive line fell off a cliff last year, and it somehow managed to get worse. I can't believe the Steelers did not address the offensive line more in the draft. Running back Najee Harris is set up to fail. Big Ben's best days are behind him. I'll roll the dice with the upstart Bengals to surpass the Steelers in the division standings. The Steelers are listed at +550 to finish last in the AFC North, so I'll take the slightly better odds with the Bengals finishing third.
Colts win AFC South (+110)
Tennessee's acquisition of wide receiver Julio Jones does not move the needle for me. The Titans secondary was atrocious, and their pass rush was among the worst in the league. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith also left the team, so I question if Ryan Tannehill can keep up his stellar play. The Colts have easily the best offensive line and defense in this division. I believe Wentz's play will bounce back under Frank Reich. I like the Colts to make some noise this year.
Texans finish 4th in AFC South (-400)
Houston will be a dumpster fire. Don't let the chalk scare you. I'm laying it.
Washington wins NFC East (+250)
Washington may have the best defense in football. They destroyed Dallas twice last year, too. I think Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over Haskins and Smith. The downfield passing attack should be much improved. According to PFF, Washington has a top 10 roster. I'll gladly take an elite defense, coupled with an improved passing attack, at odds this high.
Eagles finish last in NFC East (+130)
Dallas has an elite offense. Washington has an elite defense. New York added some interesting pieces in the offseason. The Philadelphia roster is among the league's worst. I did not love the hire of Nick Sirianni, either.
Packers win NFC North (-130)
Rodgers returns to Green Bay. That's all you need to know.
Rams finish 1st, Niners finish 2nd in NFC West (+450)
I love McVay, and I love Shanahan. The rosters are more than talented enough to make a serious run at the Super Bowl. Rams get a boost with Stafford at quarterback, and Niners get the easiest schedule in the league. These two finish in the top half of the absurdly competitive NFC West.
Niners finish 1st, Rams finish 2nd in NFC West (+475)
Cardinals finish last in NFC West (-120)
Arizona is the odd team out. It's hard to leave the bottom half of the division when your team has arguably the worst quarterback and head coach in the division.
State of Winning Super Bowl Team: Other (+100)
I essentially get Kansas City, Green Bay, Seattle, Denver, and Indianapolis. Almost every team outside of the top 12 in the Super Bowl odds is included, too. I'll gladly take Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, and a potentially dangerous Indianapolis team at even money.
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