Updated: Aug 17, 2021
Best Bet: Rams and Chargers both to make playoffs (+275)
Like it? I LOVE it. This may be my biggest prop bet play of the preseason. Two of my four MVP bets so far are Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford. The upgrade from Goff to Stafford will make the Rams a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The dismissal of Lynn, a quality 2021 NFL Draft haul, and the return of several impact players will make the Chargers the Cinderella team of 2021. I'm hammering this one.
Texans go 0-17 (+1800)
Houston will be a dumpster fire.
Niners and Rams to win 10 games (+110)
McVay, Donald, and Stafford are a recipe for 10 wins no matter how hard the division is. Shanahan, Bosa, and a HEALTHY San Francisco starting quarterback gets to 10 wins as well. Too much roster talent and quality play-calling for the Niners to not bounce back off a disappointing 2020 campaign.
Jets, Giants, and Texans all finish last in division (+400)
Congrats, Zach Wilson! You go from playing the likes of Boise State, North Alabama, and San Diego State to playing in the AFC East under a first-time head coach and offensive coordinator. That's two matchups apiece against Sean McDermott, Brian Flores, and Bill Belichick. You can make an argument that this trio of AFC East coaches are the three most widely respected defensive coaches in the game. The Jets finish last in division. I've already written extensively about how bad I think the Texans will be. I think they will ultimately pick #1 in the 2022 NFL Draft, so they obviously finish last. This is really a play on Giants finish last at +400. Their odds to finish last are +155 in reality, so I like the odds boost. I'd combo this play with Eagles +130 to finish last in division as I seriously doubt the offensive dynamo that resides in Dallas and the shutdown defense that resides in Landover will put together a disastrous 2021 campaign.
Bills, Colts, and Browns all win 11+ games (+450)
I live the overs on all these teams. The Bills are projected to win 11 games, the Browns are projected to win 10.5, and the Colts are projected to win 10. I get three quality head coaches and three winnable divisions. I get a MVP candidate at QB in Buffalo, I get arguably the league's best roster in Cleveland, and I get a team that is equipped with arguably the NFL's best offensive line in Indianapolis. A top-10 defense and four matchups against the woeful Texans and the up-and-coming Jaguars also makes the Colts an attractive dark horse team. I think 11 wins is within reach for all these teams.
All four NFC West teams make the playoffs (+2000)
Rams make it. Niners make it. You want to question Russell Wilson? The Seahawks have had 14 winning seasons since 2003. They make it 15 in 2021. The last team left is the Cardinals. Their odds to make the postseason is +190. In order for all four teams to qualify for the postseason, there must be only one playoff team (the division winner) from the other three NFC divisions. Is it hard to fathom Chicago, Minnesota, and Detroit missing the playoffs? How about New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina? Could you see Washington, Philadelphia, and New York (Giants) putting together disappointing seasons? Obviously, the NFC West will cannibalize itself during the season, but 20-1 odds are juicy enough for me to take a bite.
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