The 2022 NFL Draft is just one week away. Last year, I crushed the NFL Draft, going up over 31 units on 80+ picks. The draft props market is notoriously inefficient, and seasoned bettors can exploit it to make a quick buck. Here are some tips on how to get an edge on NFL Draft props.
1. Bet early and often.
Stop waiting until the week of the draft to bet. Much of the value will be gone by then. For instance, Ahmad Gardner was +1000 to be the third overall pick last week, and Stingley was +7500 a couple weeks prior. They are now +400 and +750 on DraftKings. Before Cam Robinson was franchise tagged, Aidan Hutchinson was +500 to be the first overall pick. He's now -200. The point is, stop waiting to the days leading up to the draft. Bet several weeks prior to the draft in order to extract as much value as possible.
2. Keep tabs on excellent mock drafters.
The Huddle Report lists the top mock drafters from the previous year and the best mock drafters over the last five years. Don't just google "NFL mock draft" and read the ones from CBS Sports or ESPN. Seek out the best of the best. These guys track draft tendencies, salary cap situations, free agency moves, and reports from local beat writers. Identify the draft risers and fallers from these mock drafts, and bet accordingly.
3. Understand that many smaller books copy lines from other books. Take advantage of the time delay.
Many books copy lines from bigger books. If you're not on a traditional book like Bovada, BetOnline, or DraftKings, check to see how frequently your book adjusts its odds. If they sluggishly respond to major news, you can get some serious closing line value on a number of props. Exploit these books. Even if you don't bet on books like Bovada, BetOnline, and DraftKings, monitor their odds to see if you can find a book that's giving out a mispriced line.
4. Compare top 5, top 10, and top 32 odds vs draft position props.
Sometimes, draft position props don't match up with Top 5, Top 10, and Top 32 bets. For instance, Jermaine Johnson was -102 to go u10.5 and -125 to be a top 10 pick a few weeks ago on FanDuel. Similarly, Kyler Gordon is currently u33.5 at -115 and +150 to go top 32. Of course, there's a one pick difference, but that doesn't justify the price difference.
5. Always compare odds on multiple sites.
This doesn't just apply to the NFL Draft. It's not uncommon to find significant disparities in odds between sportsbooks. If you love a certain draft prop, check to see if you can get a discount on other books. Today, I found Stingley at -130 to go top 10 on DraftKings and Stingley u10.5 +120 on another book. Always try to get the most bang for your buck.
6. Consider betting exact spot bets over draft position props.
Identify players with a relatively small pool of suitors relative to their draft position props. Guys that come to mind are Ickey Ekwonu (3.5) and Drake London (10.5). The Jaguars will likely address the defensive line at #1, and the Lions are probably not going to draft an offensive linemen at #2. Thus, why take Ekwonu at under 3.5 if you think he goes top 3? Bet him to go #3 overall, instead. You'll get much better odds. Similarly, I view the Falcons and the Jets as the most likely landing spots for Drake London in the top 10. Instead of betting London to go under 10.5, bet London to go #8 or #10 if you like his under. (To be clear, I love London's over 10.5. Regardless, consider targeting exact spot draft bets for players with limited suitors in the top 10 picks. You'll get much better value.)
7. Identify team draft tendencies.
The Browns, Saints, and Broncos draft extremely athletic (high RAS) players under their current leadership. In recent years, the Patriots have spent a ton of draft capital on players from Michigan, Georgia, and Alabama. For almost two decades, the Packers have refused to spend first round draft capital on offensive playmakers (besides Aaron Rodgers). Each draft is its own, but analyzing a general manager's draft history can give you an edge in the draft props market.
8. Follow NFL insiders on Twitter, and enable notifications.
Remember the Adam Schefter reports about Mac Jones going #3 to the Niners? It didn't actually happen, but it sent shockwaves across betting markets. If you didn't see that, maybe you saw tweets about Caleb Farley's back surgery, which caused his draft stock to plummet last year. (I quickly bet his o9.5 prop, and it later moved to the 20's by the end of the day.) This year, maybe you saw Adam Schefter's tweet about Cam Robinson getting franchise tagged or Tyreek Hill getting traded. The Robinson news drastically changed the #1 pick odds, and the Hill news quickly changed the value on the prop for the number of first round receivers drafted. (The Chiefs are now in the WR market.)
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