Fading the public is a popular betting strategy. Basically, the public sucks at betting, and the numbers back it up. Most lose money. This method suggests that you should take the opposite of what the public overwhelmingly likes because the public sucks at betting. The public tends to bet home favorites, especially ones coming off a win. Fade them. The public tends to hate road underdogs, especially ones coming off a loss. Look to back these teams. This usually entails fading overvalued “good” teams and backing undervalued “bad” teams. The spread is the great equalizer when it comes to betting. Bad teams can be just as profitable, if not more profitable, to bet on than good teams. Ugly dogs can still get you to the window. Never lose sight of that.
Betting Nuggets:
Check out this November 2020 article in which road underdogs off a loss and home favorites off a win are discussed in the Seahawks vs Rams section.
Check out this tweet about 2021 NFL betting splits. Home-field advantage may not be as valuable as we once thought. Just something to keep in mind.
Check out the Action Rush website. The NFL Consensus Picks tab provides quality information on how the public is betting each game.
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