Updated: Sep 24, 2021
I find this to be most useful during basketball season, but it’s also practical during football season. Sometimes, two high scoring teams get off to slow starts, and two low scoring teams get off to fast starts. These first quarter performances could just be an aberration. You can get a significant discount on the pregame total if the total drops a lot and you like the over or if the total rises a bunch and you like the under. The oddsmakers know what they are doing. It’s usually wise to discount what you see in first quarter of play and trust that team performance will regress to the mean. This applies to spreads and totals. If you're looking to live bet a football game, try to target the key numbers of 3, 7, and 10 for spreads and 41, 44, 47, and 51 for totals.
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